Accurately forecasting how much power individual stations will demand from the electric grid is a major challenge facing the rapid expansion of electric vehicle (EV) charging in the United States.
While other electricity consumers, such as apartment buildings or factories, are known quantities that grid operators can plan for, the grid-load characteristics of EV charging stations remain less understood. This uncertainty can pose increased risk to grid operators, especially smaller utilities.
To address this, Idaho National Laboratory (INL) researchers developed CalderaCast, a tool designed to aid potential funding applicants, local utilities, state agencies and other stakeholders plan and prepare for new EV charging stations. Funded by the Joint Office of Energy and Transportation, CalderaCast is publicly available and free to use. It incorporates variables such as highway traffic volume along designated alternative fuel corridors, EV adoption rates and data on the charging characteristics of EVs to create probability functions for when charging is likely to occur. The tool then models these charge events to forecast electrical load.
For example, operators of a convenience store chain considering EV chargers at one or more of its locations along busy highways can enter a prospective location’s address and different charging equipment configurations. The tool forecasts how many customers might be served and the corresponding power requirements, offering insight into the hardware required to support the operation and the expected demand on the power grid.
Online since November 2024, CalderaCast can help answer critical questions for organizations or individuals planning EV charging projects. By increasing confidence and reducing risk, the tool aims to increase the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of deploying charging infrastructure.
To generate a forecast, users select a charging station location on a map, input the types of chargers to be installed and provide a starting date of operation (to account for future EV adoption). The tool quickly outputs the expected number of EVs using the charging station and the electricity demand for a typical 24-hour period. Users can adjust settings and rerun simulations to determine the optimal charger types and station size for their needs.
A utility operator can use CalderaCast to independently evaluate interconnection requests for service to power a new EV charging station. Utilities can use the tool to determine if existing grid infrastructure will support the new load or if new infrastructure will be needed.
“We want to provide utilities with data to turn unknowns into knowns. CalderaCast will help them know what to expect from new charging stations and avoid unnecessary planning and grid-upgrade expenses,” said INL engineer Tim Pennington.
Government agencies reviewing applications for state or federal funding to subsidize DC fast-charging stations can also benefit from CalderaCast. The tool provides decision makers with an independent source of information about the potential demand for charging at a proposed location, offering a reliable reference to evaluate applications for charging station placement and design.
CalderaCast builds on Caldera, an analytical software platform that INL began developing in 2018. Caldera draws from a library of high-fidelity models derived from EV charging and battery testing data collected by INL over past decades. These models accurately estimate charge power profiles, efficiency and power factors for a variety of vehicles and charging technologies under a wide variety of grid conditions.
Expanding on Caldera’s core simulation capabilities, INL developers added a graphical user interface, built in automated queries of publicly available data sets and created other features to produce a publicly available web tool for generating demand forecasts.
The Joint Office of Energy and Transportation was created by the 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act to facilitate collaboration between the departments of Energy and Transportation. The office provides support and expertise to electric vehicle charging projects, zero-emission fueling infrastructure and zero-emission transit and school buses.
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