Decision Sciences

What We Do

Objective analysis turns complex technical and economic information into practical insights for decision makers.

We help our partners make informed, resilient energy investment decisions. Two ways we apply our decision sciences expertise include:

Developing portfolio investment strategies: We work backward from our partners’ intended outcomes to understand the current landscape, identify key barriers and evaluate the impact of potential interventions that can help them reach their goals.
Synthesizing insights to de-risk and scale technologies: We identify factors that influence whether a solution can succeed at scale. This gives hardtech innovators a clearer picture of the real-world context, which we use in partnership with them to define constraints, and together design responsive research, development, demonstration plans.

We recognize the uncertainty of the future and apply diverse analytical methods to explore technology and portfolio landscapes. Using scenario analysis, we help partners identify decisions that are reliable across a range of possible futures.

Publications

Explore the latest research and thought leadership advancing data-driven decision-making for complex energy systems, infrastructure, and national security challenges. These publications highlight innovative analytics, modeling, and systems analysis that inform policy, guide technology development, and support resilient, sustainable solutions.

Our Expertise

Our Decision Sciences department helps technology teams think ahead so their ideas work in the real world and not just in the lab. They look at practical factors like cost, rules, supply chains and how people will use a new technology. By bringing these considerations into the design process early we help teams avoid roadblocks and improve their chances of success.

Led by Thomas Mosier, the team turns complex information into clear guidance. They identify potential risks before they become problems and offer straightforward steps that keep projects moving in the right direction.

Supply chain analysis and resilience

We provide actionable supply chain insights for critical sectors such as advanced materials, bioenergy, industrial manufacturing and nuclear systems. Our assessments examine logistics, infrastructure readiness, and material flows at both regional and national levels. We identify weak points and evaluate practical steps to strengthen resilience. We combine cross-sector data with input from stakeholders to build tools that improve policy and investment decisions and strengthen U.S. competitiveness while balancing feasibility, cost and long-term reliability. Our deliverables range from interactive dashboards to technical reports and executive briefings tailored to meet the needs of each audience.

Economic and market analysis

We study how resources are used, analyze market structures and provide economic insights to business and the public sectors. Our work includes estimating cost trajectories for emerging technologies, conducting investment-grade financial analysis, assessing economic impacts and identifying the incentives that influence behavior. We help government and private sector decision-makers meet policy objectives within specific time frames, assess individual energy projects, and study how energy technologies and policies affect communities, regions and the nation. We model deployment scenarios and their socioeconomic impacts to help stakeholders understand the long-term benefits and challenges of energy investments. Our approach ensures energy strategies support technical and environmental goals as well as economic stability and growth.

Energy project planning and deployment

Decision Sciences acts as a bridge between the Department of Energy and private developers, identifying barriers to deployment and offering practical solutions. Our work helps policymakers refine regulations to speed up project development while supporting communities and developers as they navigate complex regulatory processes.

Operations research and optimization

We use mathematical and analytical methods to improve how complex systems perform, especially when outcomes are uncertain or data is incomplete. Our expertise helps manufacturers adapt to changing market conditions and improve the efficiency and resilience of regional supply chains. We apply techniques such as linear and nonlinear programming, stochastic modeling and simulation-based optimization to support decisions ranging from resource allocation to risk management. These methods are built into tools that help stakeholders explore different scenarios and prepare effective contingency plans. We prioritize transparency and reproducibility to ensure our models are technically sound and trusted by government, industry and academic partners.

Advanced analytics infrastructure

Artificial intelligence and machine learning: We integrate advanced AI capabilities, including large language models, into our analytical workflows. These tools help us identify novel data sources, extract insights from unstructured information and enhance qualitative and quantitative modeling. Geospatial intelligence: Geospatial analysis supports our research across all domains. Using Geographic Information System (GIS), remote sensing, lidar and spatial statistics, we map infrastructure, assess environmental risks and analyze socioeconomic patterns. Applications include project siting, wildfire risk assessment and energy mapping. By integrating lidar data into building information systems, we enable real-time construction validation that reduces errors and project risk.

Technology adoption

We study the human factors that shape technology adoption, evaluate communication and engagement strategies, and identify social indicators that predict community support for energy projects.

Example models

Our technical resources include the data, models, and analytical tools that help partners evaluate technologies, understand markets, and make informed energy decisions with confidence.

Tool Name	Capability	Description	Learn More
Woody Biomass Companion Markets Model (woodcom)	Supply Chain & Market Analysis	Analyzes biomass distribution across industries in the southeastern U.S. and projects changes in volume and pricing based on industry demand.	WOODCOM
Lithium Supply Analysis Model (LISA)	Supply Chain & Market Analysis	Evaluates the economic potential of extracting lithium from geothermal brines in the U.S. and considers demand scenarios and broader supply chain impacts.	LISA
Comprehensive Manufacturing Assessment Tool (CMAT)	Operations Research	A customizable decision-support tool that optimizes logistics for e-waste recycling and refurbishment. It identifies the most effective recycling process configurations and provides insights into economic performance and environmental impact.	CMAT
Water Energy Simulation Toolset (WEST)	Operations Research	An interactive simulation model for visualizing water quantity and quality impacts in a watershed. It was designed for stakeholders in hydropower, agriculture, flood control and environmental protection, and users can test management policies by adjusting inputs.	WEST
Food and Agriculture Supply Chain (FASC)	Operations Research	Quantifies economic impacts of extreme events on food supply chains. It supports sensitivity analysis and evaluating substitution effects during disruptions. Demonstrated using the potato industry.	FASC
Cobalt-Copper-Nickel Supply Chains Model (CoCuNi)	Resilience	Models global demand and supply of cobalt, copper and nickel. CoCuNi explores production responses to demand, the role of new mining projects, battery lifespan effects and benefits of increased recycling.	CoCuNi
Cobalt and Rare Earth Element Supply Chain Model (CobaltREE)	Resilience	Analyzes cobalt and rare earth element supply chains. CobaltREE evaluates impacts of alternative magnet technologies and supply chain improvement.	CobaltREE
Dynamic Rare Earth Element Model (DREEM)	Supply Chain & Market Analysis	Assesses demand for rare earth elements with a focus on supply chain constraints for direct-drive wind turbines.	DREEM

Connect with our Team

Navigating uncertainty? Let’s explore what’s possible together.

Partner with us to design resilient strategies and scale energy technologies with confidence.

DecisionSciences@inl.gov